{"id":14923,"date":"2021-04-11T13:55:29","date_gmt":"2021-04-11T11:55:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/evertonfc.cz\/?p=14923"},"modified":"2021-04-11T14:07:47","modified_gmt":"2021-04-11T12:07:47","slug":"algoritmy-evertonu-neveria","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/evertonfc.cz\/index.php\/2021\/04\/11\/algoritmy-evertonu-neveria\/","title":{"rendered":"Algoritmy Evertonu neveria"},"content":{"rendered":"

Rem\u00edza s\u00a0Crystal Palace potvrdila nepresved\u010div\u00fd trend zbierania bodov v\u00a0z\u00e1vere sez\u00f3ny. E\u0161te pred t\u00fdmto z\u00e1pasom nie\u010do tak\u00e9 nazna\u010dili simul\u00e1cie \u0161tatistick\u00fdch port\u00e1lov.<\/h4>\n

Futbal s\u00edce nehraj\u00fa matematici s kriedou pri tabuli, ani o jednotky a nuly h\u00e1daj\u00face sa polovodi\u010de, av\u0161ak in\u00fd poh\u013ead na v\u00fdkonnostn\u00e9 krivky The Toffees v\u017edy m\u00f4\u017eu zauja\u0165 oko fan\u00fa\u0161ika. Preto sa v tomto \u010dl\u00e1nku budeme z\u013eahka zaobera\u0165 stotis\u00edc simul\u00e1ciami, ktor\u00e9 spolo\u010dnos\u0165 Stats Perform vykonala e\u0161te pred reprezenta\u010dnou prest\u00e1vkou, aby odhadla kone\u010dn\u00fa tabu\u013eku Premier League sez\u00f3ny 2020\/21.<\/p>\n

Tie modr\u00e9mu mu\u017estvu z Liverpoolu veru nefandia a \u00faprimn\u00e1 tabu\u013eka najpravdepodobnej\u0161\u00edch mo\u017enost\u00ed nie ka\u017ed\u00e9mu Evertonianovi prospeje. Hlavne z psychick\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska. Preto sa st\u00e1le m\u00f4\u017eeme aspo\u0148 chl\u00e1choli\u0165, \u017ee do gu\u013eat\u00e9ho nezmyslu st\u00e1le kop\u00fa \u013eudia, a Ancelotti sa len tak \u013eahko nepodman\u00ed verejnej mienke krem\u00edkov\u00fdch obvodov. Bojuje sa a\u017e do konca a vo futbale je mo\u017en\u00e9 v\u0161etko.<\/p>\n

Syst\u00e9m predikcie<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Spom\u00ednan\u00e1 spolo\u010dnos\u0165 zaoberaj\u00faca sa \u0161tatistick\u00fdmi v\u00fdpo\u010dtami, ktorej v\u00fdsledn\u00fa tabu\u013eku m\u00f4\u017eete vidie\u0165 ni\u017e\u0161ie, pou\u017eila na predpove\u010f umiestnenia t\u00edmov met\u00f3du v\u00fdpo\u010dtu \u010d\u00edsla \u00fato\u010dnej a obrannej sily ka\u017ed\u00e9ho t\u00edmu. Urobila tak na z\u00e1klade ich v\u00fdsledkov v predch\u00e1dzaj\u00facich sez\u00f3nach. Bohu\u017eia\u013e, pre\u010do nepou\u017eili aj v\u00fdsledky prebiehaj\u00facej sez\u00f3ny, to som sa nedop\u00e1tral. Alebo to aspo\u0148 jedin\u00fd \u010dl\u00e1nok spom\u00ednaj\u00faci t\u00fato predikciu sez\u00f3ny 2020\/21 na port\u00e1li The Athletic nespom\u00edna, a vyslovene p\u00ed\u0161e len o \u00fadajoch z minul\u00fdch ro\u010dn\u00edkov.<\/p>\n

Samozrejme, v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ia v\u00e1ha sa prira\u010fuje nov\u0161\u00edm v\u00fdsledkom. Takto je mo\u017en\u00e9 spravi\u0165 simul\u00e1cie z\u00e1pasov medzi \u013eubovo\u013en\u00fdmi s\u00fapermi, a\u00a0t\u00fdmto sp\u00f4sobom prebehli v\u0161etky zost\u00e1vaj\u00face ligov\u00e9 stretnutia v\u0161etk\u00fdch klubov. \u010ci\u017ee \u010d\u00edsla v\u00a0bunk\u00e1ch predstavuj\u00fa percentu\u00e1lne zobrazenia priemeru 100,000 simul\u00e1ci\u00ed.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Tabu\u013eka v\u0161ak nezoh\u013ead\u0148uje zranenia, vyl\u00fa\u010denia, ani formu, \u010di \u017eiadne \u010fal\u0161ie faktory, ktor\u00e9 by mohli ma\u0165 vplyv v nasleduj\u00facich t\u00fd\u017ed\u0148och na v\u00fdsledky z\u00e1pasov. Je to ale objekt\u00edvny a spo\u013eahliv\u00fd odraz toho, ako by sa veci mohli udia\u0165 v bud\u00facnosti. Ako vid\u00edte vyzna\u010den\u00e9 odtiene \u010dervenej, \u0161anca, \u017ee Manchester City nez\u00edska titul, je prakticky nulov\u00e1. Takisto je len ve\u013emi m\u00e1lo pravdepodobn\u00e9, \u017ee si ich n\u00e1protivok United nech\u00e1 ujs\u0165 poz\u00edciu vicemajstra. Rovnak\u00e9 istoty maj\u00fa aj zostupuj\u00face t\u00edmy.<\/p>\n

Simulovan\u00fd Everton<\/strong><\/h4>\n

E\u0161te raz treba pripomen\u00fa\u0165, \u017ee t\u00e1to predpove\u010f nezah\u0155\u0148a u\u017e odohran\u00fd rem\u00edzov\u00fd z\u00e1pas s\u00a0The Eagles. \u010ci to je smerom do bud\u00facnosti dobr\u00e9 alebo zl\u00e9 vzh\u013eadom na umiestnenie, \u0165a\u017eko hodnoti\u0165. Ale m\u00f4j skromn\u00fd tip je, \u017ee n\u00e1s to pos\u00fava sk\u00f4r k\u00a0najpravdepodobnej\u0161ej \u00f4smej poz\u00edcii. A\u017e 24% simul\u00e1cii zvy\u0161n\u00fdch desiatich z\u00e1pasov Karameliek ukazuje pr\u00e1ve na nemastn\u00fa, neslan\u00fa aktu\u00e1lnu ligov\u00fa poz\u00edciu.<\/p>\n

Komu sa nep\u00e1\u010di, m\u00f4\u017ee uprie\u0165 pozornos\u0165 na siedme alebo deviate miesto, \u010do s\u00fa prie\u010dky, ktor\u00e9 del\u00ed asi hodenie kockou, alebo guli\u010dka rulety. Tak\u00e9 vrtkav\u00e9 je l\u00fa\u0161tenie bud\u00facnosti. Za zmienku tie\u017e stoj\u00ed pozorovanie, \u017ee t\u00edmy od piateho do \u00f4smeho miesta \u2013 Spurs, Liverpool, West Ham a\u00a0Everton \u2013 maj\u00fa najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161iu mo\u017en\u00fa vari\u00e1ciu umiestnen\u00ed, vzh\u013eadom na rozdelenie ich percentu\u00e1lnych priemerov.<\/p>\n

\u010c\u00edsla z\u00a0aktu\u00e1lnej sez\u00f3ny<\/strong><\/h4>\n

Aby sme sa pribl\u00ed\u017eili trochu k\u00a0realite dne\u0161ka, pozrieme sa na \u0161tatistiky, ktor\u00e9 ur\u010dite boli pou\u017eit\u00e9 v\u00a0simul\u00e1cii Stats Perform, len so star\u0161\u00edmi \u00fadajmi. A\u00a0to o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00e9 g\u00f3ly (xG), ako v\u00a0\u00fatoku, tak aj v\u00a0obrane. \u010c\u00edsla xG predstavuj\u00fa priemern\u00fd po\u010det g\u00f3lov, ktor\u00e9 mal Everton da\u0165, na z\u00e1klade kvality \u0161anc\u00ed, ktor\u00e9 si vytvoril.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

V tabu\u013eke vy\u0161\u0161ie k nim m\u00e1me tie\u017e priemer re\u00e1lne dosiahnut\u00fdch g\u00f3lov v tejto sez\u00f3ne, z \u010doho n\u00e1m vyjde ich rozdiel. In\u00fdmi slovami, efektivita premie\u0148ania \u0161anc\u00ed. V tom je Everton v\u00fdborn\u00fd, ke\u010f\u017ee prekra\u010duje svoje mo\u017enosti, a sk\u00f3ruje zo svojich ve\u013emi kvalitn\u00fdch pr\u00edle\u017eitost\u00ed, ale vytv\u00e1ra si ich pr\u00edli\u0161 m\u00e1lo. Najviac o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00fdch g\u00f3lov na po\u010det striel tie\u017e evokuje vysok\u00fa efektivitu stre\u013eby na br\u00e1nu.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

To v\u00a0dlhodobom kontexte m\u00f4\u017ee ukazova\u0165 na pr\u00edli\u0161n\u00e9 spoliehanie sa na defenz\u00edvu a\u00a0skor\u00e9 vedenie v\u00a0z\u00e1pasoch. A\u00a0to nie dlhodobo udr\u017eate\u013en\u00e9, ke\u010f\u017ee pri \u010d\u00edslach o\u010dak\u00e1van\u00fdch inkasovan\u00fdch g\u00f3lov je to pr\u00edbeh o\u00a0\u0161\u0165ast\u00ed, ktor\u00e9mu m\u00f4\u017eeme \u010fakova\u0165 za to, \u017ee inkasujeme menej, ne\u017e by sme v\u00a0skuto\u010dnosti mali.<\/p>\n

Dajte n\u00e1m vedie\u0165 v\u00a0koment\u00e1roch, \u010do si mysl\u00edte vy. Ver\u00edte simul\u00e1cii, alebo sa spoliehate na siln\u00fd z\u00e1ver kampane v\u00a0podan\u00ed Ancelottiho dru\u017einy, ktor\u00fd by n\u00e1s doviedol do vyt\u00fa\u017een\u00fdch Eur\u00f3pskych s\u00fa\u0165a\u017e\u00ed? Na na\u0161om webe sa m\u00f4\u017eete zapoji\u0165 aj do novej ankety o\u00a0kone\u010dnom ligovom umiestnen\u00ed Evertonu!<\/p>\n

(fotozdroj: titulka – Sky Sports\/ grafy – The Athletic)<\/span><\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Rem\u00edza s\u00a0Crystal Palace potvrdila nepresved\u010div\u00fd trend zbierania bodov v\u00a0z\u00e1vere sez\u00f3ny. 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